My Team Rating System (maybe useful for betting?)

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bigrigg47
Posts: 2
Joined: Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:37 am

My Team Rating System (maybe useful for betting?)

Post: # 651Post bigrigg47 »

Hey y'all. So I've been coding up a little team rating system that mostly just uses the run differential of each team (I'm constantly making it more complicated) and does some fancy math to output a strength-of-schedule-adjusted rating for each team. I've been using this for betting and I think it's been pretty profitable for me, so i thought I might share here. At the start of every season, it is a little confused (because each team has played a very small number of other teams), but as it goes, it should get more reliable. So, I've been using the previous season's completed ratings, and then eventually shifting to the current season one as it becomes more reasonable.

Oh, I almost forgot, the code is here if you want to take a look at it: https://github.com/riggsmarkham/blaseball-srs

Here are the full results from season 1 (including playoffs):
Team NameRatingSOS
Mexico City Wild Wings3.16-0.03
Moab Hellmouth Sunbeams2.170.12
Charleston Shoe Thieves1.66-0.07
Atlantis Georgias1.21-0.04
Yellowstone Magic1.07-0.19
Kansas City Breath Mints1.06-0.33
Seattle Garages0.890.28
Hawai'i Fridays0.80-0.01
Core Mechanics0.03-0.03
Baltimore Crabs-0.340.35
Miami Dale-0.36-0.09
Houston Spies-0.41-0.17
Breckenridge Jazz Hands-0.54-0.09
Dallas Steaks-0.580.11
Philly Pies-0.640.17
San Francisco Lovers-0.67-0.32
Tokyo Lift-0.800.60
Canada Moist Talkers-0.88-0.04
Ohio Worms-0.910.30
Boston Flowers-1.12-0.11
LA Unlimited Tacos-1.230.14
Chicago Firefighters-1.40-0.07
Hades Tigers-1.48-0.06
New York Millennials-1.48-0.40
The way to interpret these is that the rating is a team's rating is the average run differential per 9 innings that this team would be expected to get against a hypothetical average team. And a team's SOS is the average rating of their opponents (weighted for innings played against them).

Updated after season 2, day 85:
Team NameRatingSOS
Moab Hellmouth Sunbeams3.21-0.09
Yellowstone Magic2.43-0.01
Mexico City Wild Wings2.14-0.11
Boston Flowers1.77-0.16
Charleston Shoe Thieves1.480.36
Hawai'i Fridays1.290.11
Atlantis Georgias0.89-0.18
Miami Dale0.630.60
Baltimore Crabs0.07-0.23
Broken Ridge Jazz Hands0.02-0.87
Kansas City Breath Mints-0.10-0.20
Philly Pies-0.11-0.01
Core Mechanics-0.11-0.02
San Francisco Lovers-0.34-0.62
Seattle Garages-0.480.17
Canada Moist Talkers-0.520.06
Ohio Worms-0.780.46
Dallas Steaks-0.840.10
Chicago Firefighters-1.35-0.26
LA Unlimited Tacos-1.66-0.00
New York Millennials-1.710.34
Hades Tigers-1.820.24
Tokyo Lift-1.970.56
Houston Spies-2.10-0.26
Let me know if you want any more updates. I'll try to post them occasionally and I'll try to make sure I post end of season ratings here when they come up too.
Last edited by bigrigg47 on Fri Jan 27, 2023 3:37 pm, edited 7 times in total.
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MangoHabanero
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Re: My Team Rating System (maybe useful for betting?)

Post: # 662Post MangoHabanero »

This is excellent. Thanks!
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Paranundrox
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Joined: Tue Jan 10, 2023 12:19 am
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Re: My Team Rating System (maybe useful for betting?)

Post: # 670Post Paranundrox »

Mango Avert your eyes:

Is there some way to hook this into the game schedule to give basically an hourly reference sheet? It would be really handy to have a page that just shows the recommended bets for a given game day
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bigrigg47
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Joined: Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:37 am

Re: My Team Rating System (maybe useful for betting?)

Post: # 672Post bigrigg47 »

Paranundrox wrote: Wed Jan 25, 2023 1:43 am Is there some way to hook this into the game schedule to give basically an hourly reference sheet? It would be really handy to have a page that just shows the recommended bets for a given game day
The data that you'd need to do this is definitely all there in the API, and I could (given a few hours of free time), definitely make it so that the python code could give on-demand betting recommendations for future games, but ... putting that up online in an auto-updating UI is a whole different ballgame...
I'm not a frontend guy usually, so while I think I could probably do it, it'd take me a lot more time (maybe a project for me for this weekend/next week?) and I'd need to figure out a place to put it.
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